"By ordering Aquino’s assassination, Marcos had miscalculated—badly. True, he had rid himself of his longtime nemesis and primary electoral threat. But far from shoring up his regime, he had set in motion forces that would lead to its collapse."
Now contrast this to the tiny whimper of discontent when Putin murdered Navalny, and it becomes obvious that the modern dictatorship (at least in Russia, China, Iran etc) is built on far sturdier stuff. If the common people hardly give a fig the dictatorship can survive a lot, but even if they mostly all hate the regime, as long as the troops stay loyal they can still survive.
Yes, I agree that mounting a viable challenge to dictatorships in Russia and China, especially, would be far more difficult. But most authoritarian regimes today are not nearly as stifling; they're what we call "competitive authoritarian" systems. There's an above-ground opposition. There are elections which, while not fair, are free enough that the opposition can win. People can organize, protest, etc.
By that I suppose you mean Hungary? In Turkey, the winner of the Istanbul major election was just imprisoned. I don't know if there are really that many regimes where the opposition stands a chance.
Not really true. Authoritarian incumbents have recently lost elections in (1) Senegal (2024), Brazil (2022), Poland (2023), Guatemala (2023), Zambia (2021), and Liberia (2023).
Yes, but they were really weak compared to Turkey, Iran, Russia etc. Any wannabe autocrat worth his salt will make sure there is not a chance for the opposition to ever gain any real power. We will see where the United States is at the end of 2028, but given that Bolsonaro was given his just desserts by Brazil's supreme court and Trump was not, I think the US will have the harder time by comparison in getting out of this mess.
Putin came to power in 2000. It wasn't until 2016 until he possessed anything like the police state he has now, capable of snuffing out any overt organizing and dissent. Mao Zedong spent decades literally chasing his opposition out of the country in a civil war. It takes years and years of work, which Trump doesn't have - and efforts by *competent people*, which Trump also doesn't have - to build the kind of dictatorship that snuffs out all above-ground opposition. No way Trump can do that by 2028. There will be an election. The election will be fair *enough* that Dems can win. And the political environment will be open enough that Americans can mobilize to defend the election result and force him/his regime from power, if need be.
I am not so sure. Putin was virtually a dictator from day 1, his opposition never really materialised because it's Russia. As my Russian friend said, "Russians always need a strong leader, they can't psychologically do without it". His state has become more repressive for sure, but these were always the levers he had at his disposal. The FSB is just a rebranded KGB and Putin was always its master. The mass protests in 2012 for example were just a thorn in his side, but with the war, mass dissent became much more unwelcome, so it was finally time to get rid of it.
A counter example: Hitler. Came to power in early 1933 and in a couple of months had banned all trade unions, political parties and public opposition. All of that based on 44% of the vote (in a very not free or fair election).
I think you are probably correct that the Democrats can win, but I wouldn't count on it. It's only been a year and the Freedom House index which will be published sometime soon will show a massive drop in USA's ratings. There is also the fact that even if they do win, there is no guarantee they will be able or willing to make the lasting reforms necessary to prevent it from happening again. The Biden admin didn't do a great job of putting Trump in prison, let alone crafting a message that could win broad and lasting popular support.
"By ordering Aquino’s assassination, Marcos had miscalculated—badly. True, he had rid himself of his longtime nemesis and primary electoral threat. But far from shoring up his regime, he had set in motion forces that would lead to its collapse."
Now contrast this to the tiny whimper of discontent when Putin murdered Navalny, and it becomes obvious that the modern dictatorship (at least in Russia, China, Iran etc) is built on far sturdier stuff. If the common people hardly give a fig the dictatorship can survive a lot, but even if they mostly all hate the regime, as long as the troops stay loyal they can still survive.
Yes, I agree that mounting a viable challenge to dictatorships in Russia and China, especially, would be far more difficult. But most authoritarian regimes today are not nearly as stifling; they're what we call "competitive authoritarian" systems. There's an above-ground opposition. There are elections which, while not fair, are free enough that the opposition can win. People can organize, protest, etc.
By that I suppose you mean Hungary? In Turkey, the winner of the Istanbul major election was just imprisoned. I don't know if there are really that many regimes where the opposition stands a chance.
Not really true. Authoritarian incumbents have recently lost elections in (1) Senegal (2024), Brazil (2022), Poland (2023), Guatemala (2023), Zambia (2021), and Liberia (2023).
Yes, but they were really weak compared to Turkey, Iran, Russia etc. Any wannabe autocrat worth his salt will make sure there is not a chance for the opposition to ever gain any real power. We will see where the United States is at the end of 2028, but given that Bolsonaro was given his just desserts by Brazil's supreme court and Trump was not, I think the US will have the harder time by comparison in getting out of this mess.
Putin came to power in 2000. It wasn't until 2016 until he possessed anything like the police state he has now, capable of snuffing out any overt organizing and dissent. Mao Zedong spent decades literally chasing his opposition out of the country in a civil war. It takes years and years of work, which Trump doesn't have - and efforts by *competent people*, which Trump also doesn't have - to build the kind of dictatorship that snuffs out all above-ground opposition. No way Trump can do that by 2028. There will be an election. The election will be fair *enough* that Dems can win. And the political environment will be open enough that Americans can mobilize to defend the election result and force him/his regime from power, if need be.
I am not so sure. Putin was virtually a dictator from day 1, his opposition never really materialised because it's Russia. As my Russian friend said, "Russians always need a strong leader, they can't psychologically do without it". His state has become more repressive for sure, but these were always the levers he had at his disposal. The FSB is just a rebranded KGB and Putin was always its master. The mass protests in 2012 for example were just a thorn in his side, but with the war, mass dissent became much more unwelcome, so it was finally time to get rid of it.
A counter example: Hitler. Came to power in early 1933 and in a couple of months had banned all trade unions, political parties and public opposition. All of that based on 44% of the vote (in a very not free or fair election).
I think you are probably correct that the Democrats can win, but I wouldn't count on it. It's only been a year and the Freedom House index which will be published sometime soon will show a massive drop in USA's ratings. There is also the fact that even if they do win, there is no guarantee they will be able or willing to make the lasting reforms necessary to prevent it from happening again. The Biden admin didn't do a great job of putting Trump in prison, let alone crafting a message that could win broad and lasting popular support.