Elon Musk Is Not the Problem

The real danger is not the oligarchs but Trump's authoritarianism.

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As the world’s top billionaire rummages through the inner workings of its mightiest state, the influence of America’s oligarchs is hard to miss these days. Never before in modern U.S. history has a private citizen wielded as much political clout as Elon Musk.

It is exactly what President Joseph R. Biden warned about in his farewell address, when he proclaimed that “an oligarchy is taking shape in America.”

As if to prove the point, Musk proceeded to launch an unprecedented—and shockingly corrupt—bid to infiltrate the federal government. In short order, he dispatched a bevy of post-pubescent fanboys, newly emerged from their parents’ basements, into the government’s most sensitive computer systems, doing god-knows-what with their access.

The moves have prompted considerable alarm among the commentariat. “Elon Musk is President,” ran a headline in The Atlantic. “The top 1% are no longer just influencing policy from behind the scenes,” Ali Velshi of MSNBC declared, “they are seizing control of the levers of power.” A recent TIME cover depicts Musk sitting behind Trump’s desk in the Oval Office.

According to the emerging consensus, Trump is president in name only, little more than a puppet in the hands of the reactionary tech entrepreneur.

The reality is far different. Musk and his fellow plutocrats are not omnipotent. They are exceptionally vulnerable, in fact.

Having spent the past two decades studying oligarchs in Eastern Europe, I can affirm that we are witnessing something momentous. Only it is not oligarchization; it is authoritarianism.

As political scientist Jeffrey Winters explains, oligarchy can exist under any political regime, whether democratic or authoritarian. The U.S., for its part, is already an oligarchy and has been for more than a century. America’s richest moguls have long defended their vastly disproportionate wealth by exerting undue influence over tax policy and economic regulation. Nothing about that will change with Trump in office.

A New Order

But this hardly means business as usual—either for the oligarchs or the rest of us. The coming move toward authoritarianism will affect everyone, including the super-rich. Yet, far from enjoying a new heyday, they might not like what the emerging regime has in store.

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The reality is far different. Musk and his fellow plutocrats are not omnipotent. They are exceptionally vulnerable, in fact.

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Trump has already gone a long way toward dismantling the checks on his power. The only question is how far he will be able to go. The Putin model of full authoritarianism is almost certainly not attainable. Trump’s megalomaniacal fantasies will stumble upon myriad constraints, including federalism, a vibrant civil society, and his own incompetence, that will block him from forcing all opposition activity underground.

More likely is what political scientists Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way refer to as “competitive authoritarianism.” Under this arrangement, civil liberties are curbed while the electoral process is rigged to the advantage of incumbents. But the opposition can still take part in elections and threaten the ruling party’s hold on power.

Trump’s first imperative in this regard is the same one faced by any aspiring autocrat: to “capture the referees,” as Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt put it. This involves placing loyalists in charge of the key state agencies empowered to launch investigations and sanction rule violators. Trump has wasted little time getting to work on this task, appointing MAGA diehards to the Department of Justice, the Treasury, and other agencies. Unfortunately, when it comes to seizing the reins of federal power, there is little that stands in his way.

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The implications for the oligarchs cannot be overstated. Those who remain in Trump’s good graces stand to profit immensely. But those who cross him can lose everything.

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Once his lickspittles have taken charge, Trump can unleash the full force of the U.S. government against anyone he wants. As a result, actions that were once unfathomable will become very real. Few abuses of executive power will be off limits, from deploying the military against protesters to deporting masses of people without due process. Equally plausible are lawless and arbitrary investigations of his opponents. Among the likely targets are local officials who refuse to “find the votes,” district attorneys who decline to criminalize homelessness, business owners guilty of hiring Black people, and, of course, wealthy plutocrats who draw his ire.

Law, That Curious Relic

America’s oligarchs built their wealth at a time when constitutional rights and legal protections were taken for granted. Their property rights were protected by a system of courts whose decisions everyone, from ordinary citizens to the most powerful officeholders, regarded as sacrosanct.

This edifice was remarkably fragile, however, dependent on norms whose power derived from the collective expectation that they would be followed. If government officials refrained from violating property rights, it was because they presumed the courts would enforce them in rulings everybody expected everyone else to respect.

But if the president decides to ignore these norms, the law loses the very basis of its authority. In the event that Trump defies a Supreme Court ruling, who will force him to comply? His Justice Department sycophants?

The implications for the oligarchs cannot be overstated. Those who remain in Trump’s good graces stand to profit immensely. But those who cross him can lose everything.

The days when their tax burdens were their overriding concern will soon appear quaint. Instead, the oligarchs will be preoccupied with threats to their ownership rights and even the specter of unlawful detention. Scenarios once confined to developing countries, such as targeted intimidation by federal agencies, prosecutions on false charges, and other forms of administrative harassment, will become facts of life in the U.S.

The ultra-rich are used to lobbying for lower taxes. They are rather less accustomed to F.B.I. raids and asset seizures designed to strong-arm them into selling their assets and fleeing abroad. Yet, this is exactly what could befall an oligarch who runs afoul of Trump. The legality of such moves is beside the point; the feds can do more than enough damage before any countervailing orders come down from the courts which, in any case, can be ignored.

Musk’s sway, while extraordinary, is also fleeting. Snatching it away is as easy as slamming the Wendy’s Baconator button on the Resolute Desk.

It is only a matter of time before these two imbecilic, impulsive narcissists come to blows. When that happens, Musk will receive a harsh lesson in the reality of competitive authoritarianism. His immense wealth matters little when up against the guy who can wield the Justice Department as his personal bludgeon. In all likelihood, he will become the subject of multiple criminal probes and be chased out of the country. It is a lesson that will not be lost on his fellow moguls.

History is replete with examples of business tycoons coming to rue their past support for autocrats. Trump’s reign should prove no different. He is the one in charge, not the oligarchs. That is bad news for them—as well as for us.

This hardly means all is lost, however. As I explained in a previous post, the obstacles to authoritarianism in the U.S. are far greater than those faced by other countries that experienced democratic breakdown. America’s civil society, in particular, is unmatched in terms of its resources and depth. If and when it mobilizes effectively, Trump is finished.

But make no mistake; however dangerous Musk’s shenanigans are, Trump is the problem. It is toward him that we must direct our focus and efforts.